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2028 INITIATIVE
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Bradford County

NE · Pennsylvania

Bradford County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 17,833 voters, compared to a 11,897-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Bradford County needs 6,657 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+6,657
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−12K
PEAK · 2008
−11K
NOW · 2026
−18K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered7.8K
Rep registered26K
Unaffiliated Registered3.8K
Dem velocity (per yr)−272
Rep velocity (per yr)+340
Mobility score11.4%
Pop growth (2010→2026)13.2%
Proj. Dem · 20287.2K
Proj. Rep · 202827K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +612/yr. At this pace another +1.2K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
456inactive Democrats
5.84% of Bradford's Democratic base
For context: 908 inactive Republicans (3.54% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−15K
Dem conversion (2024)96.5%
Rep conversion (2024)89.2%
Proj. 2028 · trended−19K
Proj. 2028 · weak−20K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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