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2028 INITIATIVE
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Blair County

Central · Pennsylvania

Blair County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 30,942 voters, compared to a 20,280-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Blair County needs 8,703 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+8,703
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−16K
PEAK · 2000
−16K
NOW · 2026
−31K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered20K
Rep registered51K
Unaffiliated Registered8.4K
Dem velocity (per yr)−454
Rep velocity (per yr)+652
Mobility score12.4%
Pop growth (2010→2026)15.2%
Proj. Dem · 202819K
Proj. Rep · 202853K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.1K/yr. At this pace another +2.2K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
1,378inactive Democrats
6.97% of Blair's Democratic base
For context: 1,894 inactive Republicans (3.73% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−28K
Dem conversion (2024)90.6%
Rep conversion (2024)91.5%
Proj. 2028 · trended−34K
Proj. 2028 · weak−37K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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