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2028 INITIATIVE
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Berks County

SE · Pennsylvania

Berks County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 13,960 voters, compared to a 19,435-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Berks County needs 21,866 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+21,866
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+5.1K
PEAK · 2008
+29K
NOW · 2026
−14K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered104K
Rep registered118K
Unaffiliated Registered41K
Dem velocity (per yr)−1.7K
Rep velocity (per yr)+1.8K
Mobility score16.8%
Pop growth (2010→2026)18.8%
Proj. Dem · 2028102K
Proj. Rep · 2028124K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +3.5K/yr. At this pace another +7.0K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
5,862inactive Democrats
5.63% of Berks's Democratic base
For context: 3,484 inactive Republicans (2.95% of R base)

Roughly 1 in 20 of Berks's registered Democrats is on the federal cancellation path.

Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−26K
Dem conversion (2024)83.6%
Rep conversion (2024)98.2%
Proj. 2028 · trended−27K
Proj. 2028 · weak−44K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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