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2028 INITIATIVE
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Bedford County

SW · Pennsylvania

Bedford County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 19,285 voters, compared to a 12,266-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Bedford County needs 3,358 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+3,358
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−6.5K
PEAK · 2000
−6.5K
NOW · 2026
−19K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered5.3K
Rep registered25K
Unaffiliated Registered2.3K
Dem velocity (per yr)−425
Rep velocity (per yr)+301
Mobility score5.4%
Pop growth (2010→2026)2.9%
Proj. Dem · 20284.2K
Proj. Rep · 202826K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +726/yr. At this pace another +1.5K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
179inactive Democrats
3.39% of Bedford's Democratic base
For context: 414 inactive Republicans (1.69% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−19K
Dem conversion (2024)76.5%
Rep conversion (2024)95.0%
Proj. 2028 · trended−21K
Proj. 2028 · weak−22K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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