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2028 INITIATIVE
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Armstrong County

SW · Pennsylvania

Armstrong County is currently classified in ALARM status, reflecting a severe post-2016 registration collapse. Democrats trail by 16,956 voters, compared to a 6,338-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Armstrong County needs 6,094 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+6,094
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+1.7K
PEAK · 2000
+1.7K
NOW · 2026
−17K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered11K
Rep registered28K
Unaffiliated Registered3.7K
Dem velocity (per yr)−519
Rep velocity (per yr)+569
Mobility score9.5%
Pop growth (2010→2026)10.7%
Proj. Dem · 20289.5K
Proj. Rep · 202830K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +1.1K/yr. At this pace another +2.2K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
413inactive Democrats
3.87% of Armstrong's Democratic base
For context: 612 inactive Republicans (2.21% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−20K
Dem conversion (2024)74.9%
Rep conversion (2024)101.1%
Proj. 2028 · trended−20K
Proj. 2028 · weak−22K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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