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Allegheny County

SW · Pennsylvania

Allegheny County is currently classified as an Anchor county — a stronghold that must be defended. Democrats lead by 238,556 voters, compared to a 280,366-voter Democratic advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Allegheny County needs 71,060 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+71,060
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
+308K
PEAK · 2008
+339K
NOW · 2026
+239K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered502K
Rep registered264K
Unaffiliated Registered112K
Dem velocity (per yr)−3.5K
Rep velocity (per yr)+763
Mobility score11.6%
Pop growth (2010→2026)9.8%
Proj. Dem · 2028504K
Proj. Rep · 2028271K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +4.2K/yr. At this pace another +8.5K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
31,240inactive Democrats
6.22% of Allegheny's Democratic base
For context: 10,999 inactive Republicans (4.17% of R base)

Roughly 1 in 20 of Allegheny's registered Democrats is on the federal cancellation path.

Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin+146K
Dem conversion (2024)81.7%
Rep conversion (2024)103.4%
Proj. 2028 · trended+198K
Proj. 2028 · weak+115K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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