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2028 INITIATIVE
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Adams County

Central · Pennsylvania

Adams County is currently classified as a Slipping county, with steady erosion of the Democratic registration advantage. Democrats trail by 24,863 voters, compared to a 15,817-voter Republican advantage in 2016. To put Pennsylvania back on track for 2028, Adams County needs 12,727 net new Democratic registrations.

2028 Registration Quota
+12,727
Net new Democratic registrants
Dem Advantage · 2000 → 2026
2000
−11K
PEAK · 2000
−11K
NOW · 2026
−25K
Registration · The Roll
Dem registered19K
Rep registered44K
Unaffiliated Registered10K
Dem velocity (per yr)−111
Rep velocity (per yr)+821
Mobility score20.7%
Pop growth (2010→2026)30.6%
Proj. Dem · 202819K
Proj. Rep · 202846K
GAP WIDENING · Reps outpace Dems by +932/yr. At this pace another +1.9K by 2028.
Retention · Voters at Risk
1,379inactive Democrats
7.20% of Adams's Democratic base
For context: 1,856 inactive Republicans (4.22% of R base)
Inactive voters who don't vote in two consecutive federal elections face cancellation under federal law.
Vote Model · 2024 → 2028
2024 vote margin−20K
Dem conversion (2024)101.9%
Rep conversion (2024)91.6%
Proj. 2028 · trended−28K
Proj. 2028 · weak−31K
TRENDED = post-2016 conversion drift continues · WEAK = Dem conversion falls to 75% (bad-candidate floor)
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